Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
